May 14, 2022 - The RightLine Report
Notes From The Editor
Last weekend we talked about how to overcome some common obstacles that keep most investors from successfully using "the trend." One of the most common roadblocks is the belief that "the only time the trend is worthwhile is when it is going up." However since the market spends a great deal of time going down as well as up, this widely held opinion often prevents traders from seeing other types of profit opportunities that are easily available.
Accepting the power of the trend only when it is moving up exposes investor's portfolios to serious damage when the trend shifts to moving down. By the time the majority of traders and investors realize that the up-trend is no longer working on their behalf, it's usually too late.
- Now Is The Time
"Time" is perhaps the most misunderstood aspect of the power of trend. Though we are not talking about "timing" here, learning to trade with the trend DOES teach us to recognize market reversals early.
What we're referring to is "time frame," or the specific time period necessary to define a particular trend. For example, the trend on a yearly chart may be headed up, while the trend on a monthly chart may at the same time be headed down. So is the trend up, or is the trend down? It clearly depends on the time frame that we choose to trade.
As simple and easy as this is to comprehend, most references to trend fail to include the specific time frame. This leaves most folks confused. Whenever you hear someone mention "the trend," be sure that they clarify the time frame. This way you will know if the trend they are talking about applies to YOUR personal trading and investment strategy. It's the only trend that matters.
Day traders base their trades on the shortest-term trends. This can be a few hours or even less. Because they are in and out so fast, a one- minute, five-minute, or ten-minute chart is used to determine the trend. On the other hand, traders who prefer to hold positions for a few days might use hourly or daily charts to determine the trend. Longer-term investors will normally use weekly or monthly charts to establish the trend that affects their strategy.
There is no reason for someone who has a two- or three-year time horizon to know what the trend is on a one-minute chart, while at the same time a pure day trader has little interest in the weekly or monthly trend.
Remember that each distinct trend within each time frame is a separate tool to be used for an intended purpose. Different time frames are used for different purposes ... a watchmaker has little need for a sledgehammer, while a drill rig operator in the oilfields uses one every day. In the same sense, trends are tools that help us extract profits from the stock market. Grasping these simple concepts of Time and Trend allows us to choose the best tool for the job!
Trade well,
- Thomas Sutton, Editor
Stocks Covered Today Stock Splits Trader's Corner
Quick List
Stock 05/14 05/14 Buy Short Trailing Stops Gain
Symbol Price +/- Entry Entry Initial/Tighten Amount
------ -------- -------- -------- -------- --------------- --------
BOC 20.82 0.51 19.97 1.77/0.89 2.28
MHK 139.38 0.49 142.16 9.36/4.68 11.02
NEOG 26.48 -0.02 25.4 2.06/1.03 1.88
MRTN 17.98 0.03 18.53 1.37/0.69 1.06
ROAD 21.70 0.64 22.33 20.59 1.74/0.87 1.92
The "Quick List" provides a brief summary of each stock write-up and should be taken in the context of the related write-up presented in the "Stocks Covered in This Issue" section of this Report.
Be sure to read "How To Use The RightLine Quick List" and always use the RightLine Risk Control Calculator before entering any position.
For more on controlling risk go to the RightLine Risk Control System
For a glossary of terms unique to The RightLine Report go to: Glossary
Questions? Send us an email using our Contact Form.
Stocks Covered Today Stock Splits Trader's Corner
Market Summary
US stocks finished higher on Friday but closed out the sixth consecutive week of losses. Rising interest rates, chronic inflation and signs of slowing economic growth continue to drive market sentiment. Consumer sentiment declined more than predicted as worries over inflation prompted the lowest reading in a decade, yet import prices were better than expected. In equities, Twitter (TWTR $41) shareholders were in a holding pattern after Elon Musk suggested his $44-Billion deal to acquire the social media platform is on hold, while shares of Affirm Holdings (AFRM $24) were higher after the company reported a smaller quarterly loss than expected and raised guidance. Oil prices were higher, gold, the USD/dollar and treasuries were lower, lifting yields.
Friday On The Week
-------------------- --------------------
Dow 32,196.66 466.36 -702.71 -2.14%
Nasdaq 11,805.00 434.04 -339.66 -2.8%
S&P 500 4,023.89 93.81 -99.45 -2.41%
NYSE Volume 5.2B
NYSE Advancers 2,663
NYSE Decliners 695
Nasdaq Volume 5.91B
Nasdaq Advancers 3,615
Nasdaq Decliners 1,244
New Highs/Lows
05/06 05/09 05/10 05/11 05/12 05/13
--------------------------------------------
NYSE New Highs 28 12 5 13 4 12
NYSE New Lows 616 1,063 911 784 1,044 202
Nasdaq New Highs 24 23 22 16 11 13
Nasdaq New Lows 1,098 1,711 1,381 1,574 1,706 316
Stocks Covered Today Stock Splits Trader's Corner
TRADER'S TIP: "Extreme Bids"
When the market is closed, level II quotes will often show an extremely low and extremely high bid far from the current offer. Although neither bid are likely to be filled, they are usually there because market makers are required to provide a two-sided quote. By entering a bid and offer far away from the National Best Bid Offer, it ensures they won't get filled. This is one way market makers satisfy the two-sided quote rule without being active in the stock. Another way to view it is that the market maker has no customer orders for that particular stock.
The Technical Analyst
For help with this chart, be sure to read "Understanding The Importance Of Support And Resistance"
and "Improve Your Trading With Moving Averages".
S&P 500 - 4023.89 May 13, 2022
52-Week High: 4818.62
52-Week Low: 3858.87
Daily Trend: DOWN
Weekly trend: DOWN
Weekly Pivot Levels
Resistance 3: 4432.80
Resistance 2: 4210.41
Resistance 1: 4117.14
Pivot: 3988.01
Support 1: 3894.74
Support 2: 3765.60
Support 3: 3543.20
NASDAQ Composite - 11805.00 May 13, 2022
52-Week High: 16212.23
52-Week Low: 11108.76
Daily Trend: DOWN
Weekly trend: DOWN
Weekly Pivot Levels
Resistance 3: 13398.49
Resistance 2: 12516.64
Resistance 1: 12160.82
Pivot: 11634.79
Support 1: 11278.97
Support 2: 10752.94
Support 3: 9871.09
Dow Industrials - 32196.66 May 13, 2022
52-Week High: 36952.65
52-Week Low: 31228.22
Daily Trend: DOWN
Weekly trend: DOWN
Weekly Pivot Levels
Resistance 3: 35106.91
Resistance 2: 33582.96
Resistance 1: 32889.81
Pivot: 32059.01
Support 1: 31365.86
Support 2: 30535.06
Support 3: 29011.11
Stocks Covered Today Stock Splits Trader's Corner
Market Calendar
ECONOMIC REPORTS AND EVENTS (all times are Eastern): Monday, May 16, 2022: 16-May 8:30 am Empire state manufacturing index Tuesday, May 17, 2022: 17-May 8:30 am Retail sales 17-May 8:30 am Retail sales excluding vehicles 17-May 9:15 am Industrial production index 17-May 9:15 am Capacity utilization 17-May 10 am NAHB home builders' index 17-May 10 am Business inventories (revision) Wednesday, May 18, 2022: 18-May 8:30 am Building permits (SAAR) 18-May 8:30 am Housing starts (SAAR) 18-May 8:30 am Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index Thursday, May 19, 2022: 19-May 8:30 am Initial jobless claims 19-May 8:30 am Continuing jobless claims 19-May 10 am Existing home sales (SAAR) Friday, May 20, 2022: 20-May 8:30 am Advance services report For a chart of typical Up or Down market reactions to specific major US economic reports go to: Economic Indicator Effects
Stocks Covered Today Stock Splits Trader's Corner
TRADER'S TIP: "The Primary Purpose Of Charts"
As stocks move, the resulting price action leaves footprints in the sand. These footprints are recorded on the price charts - valuable tools for traders. The primary purpose of charts is to identify the trend along with important support & resistance levels of a stock or market.
For more on the basics of charting, go to: http://www.rightline.net/education/charting.html
Stocks Covered in This Issue
COMMUNICATION SERVICES SECTOR
Boston Omaha Corporation (BOC: Communication Services/Advertising Agencies) - BEARISH U-TURN. The weekly trend for BOC is down, but recent daily price activity has lifted shares upward in what's known as a "counter-trend" bounce. As the name implies, this type of rebound is against the main trend. These bounces tend to revert back to the direction of the main trend - in this case downward - once the bounce reaches significant resistance. This is exactly the situation BOC finds itself in, as Saturday's recoil from moving average resistance presents the beginnings of a possible return to the weekly downtrend. BOC now sits at 20.82 after reaching an intra-day high of 21.46 during the latest session. Place a short-SELL order with your broker if price drops to the 19.97 level. Follow your entry with a trailing stop of 1.77 and tighten to 0.89 on a 2.28 profit. Earnings Report Date: May 23, 2022. Beta: 0.36. Market-Cap: 624.612M. Optionable.
CONSUMER CYCLICAL SECTOR
Mohawk Industries, Inc. (MHK: Consumer Cyclical/Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances) - BULLISH BOUNCE. Entering a position in the early stages of a bounce is great way to get on board an up-trending stock. The "Bullish Bounce" setup identifies probable candidates by evaluating the trading action that takes place near support levels. MHK's behavior on Saturday could very well be a sign that a new bounce is underway. Place a BUY trigger at 142.16. In the event your trigger is met, also place a 9.36 trailing stop which can be trimmed down to 4.68 when you have a 11.02 profit. MHK closed Saturday at 139.38. Earnings Report Date: Jul 27, 2022. Beta: 1.51. Market-Cap: 8.856B. Optionable.
HEALTHCARE SECTOR
Neogen Corporation (NEOG: Healthcare/Diagnostics & Research) - BEARISH U-TURN. Despite the fact that Bears have shown the ability to force NEOG into a painful downtrend, recent bullish action has provided shareholders with some welcome relief. However, the upward reprieve may now be about to end. Saturday's intra-day price reaction near Moving Average resistance signals an increased probability that NEOG will head lower in the near term. NEOG now sits at 26.48. Prepare to sell shares SHORT if the weakening price reaches our trigger at 25.4. Place a 2.06 trailing stop after you enter, then reduce it to 1.03 when you've gained 1.88. Earnings Report Date: Jul 18, 2022. Beta: 0.52. Market-Cap: 2.854B. Optionable.
INDUSTRIALS SECTOR
Marten Transport, Ltd. (MRTN: Industrials/Trucking) - BULLISH BOUNCE. Some people hear of a stock that's performing nicely and then buy it without any regard for timing the entry. This approach usually leaves money on the table, money that could just as well be added to profits. The Bullish Bounce setup provides a well timed entry and reduces exposure to risk by placing both the entry trigger and exit stop near the bottom of the bounce. We have an opportunity to use this approach with MRTN which met our setup criteria on Saturday. The BUY trigger for this trade is at 18.53, and the trailing stop is sized at 1.37. Resize the stop to 0.69 upon collecting a 1.06 point gain. MRTN closed Saturday at 17.98. Earnings Report Date: Jul 19, 2022. Beta: 0.88. Market-Cap: 1.473B. Optionable.
Construction Partners, Inc. (ROAD: Industrials/Engineering & Construction) - SQUEEZE PLAY. ROAD is caught in a dilemma. The stock's compressed price range on Saturday has resulted in a condition comparable to a wound up rubber band. We anticipate that this undecided equity will take off soon, but with the direction still in question we'll let upcoming market action tell us whether to buy shares or sell short. ROAD is now at 21.70. We can capture price action either way by placing a BUY trigger at 22.33 and a SELL short trigger at 20.59. Once ROAD reveals its direction, enter your triggered order and disregard the other one. As soon as your position is in place, follow up with a trailing stop of 1.74. When you acquire a 1.92 profit, tighten the stop to 0.87. Earnings Report Date: Aug 04, 2022. Beta: 0.98. Market-Cap: 1.14B. Optionable.
IMPORTANT: Before entering any positions, always use the Risk Control System to determine the level of acceptable risk and the maximum number of shares to buy. Use Gap Adjusted Entries to reset the Entry Price for stocks that gap beyond recommended entry levels.
Stocks Covered Today Stock Splits Trader's Corner
Stock Splits
Below are the stocks that have announced splits and have recently executed or will execute soon. There is generally a return to normal price behavior in the weeks following a split announcement in what we call a "Dormancy Phase." As the stock nears its split execution date (Effective Date) it often moves into the "Pre-Split Run" stage where quick and sometimes dramatic gains can occur.
Announce Eff. Split
Company Name (Symbol) Date Date Ratio Options
---------------- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------
ACM Research ACMR 3/4/2022 3/24/2022 3-for-1 Yes
PAM Transport PTSI 3/9/2022 3/30/2022 2-for-1 Yes
Amazon AMZN 3/9/2022 6/6/2022 20-for-1 Yes
Split details are also available online at the RightLine Online Stock Split Calendar. For a detailed look at the different stages of a Stock Split, Click Here.
Stocks Covered Today Stock Splits Trader's Corner
Trader's Corner
"Hammer Time"
Technicians throughout the world have adopted the Japanese practice of candlestick charting. In fact, many have abandoned Western bars in favor of this visual tool that generates detailed information from short-term price movement. Of all candlestick patterns, single bar hammers and dojis provide the most versatile immediate feedback. Western technical analysis rarely offers such dependable single bar signals.
These formations print when a significant battle between bulls and bears ends in a draw. Two characteristics generate their predictive power:
1. High to low range greater than average.
2. Closing tick equal to or near opening tick.
Dojis represent perfect opening-closing balance as price finishes exactly where it started. Hammers need only close so that the central body of the candlestick is less than one-third the length of the bar's total range. But the body must sit near one end of the bar's action. Dojis and hammers predict immediate reversals within the time frames they are created. Their significance directly relates to their position within the overall chart pattern. When appearing on high volume near significant highs or lows, they may represent price extremes signifying an important change in trend. If printed within an ongoing congestion pattern, they often reflect market makers or specialists "cleaning out" stops in one direction so they can move the market in the opposite direction.
Retracement science assists traders in predicting events subsequent to one of these important candles. Shifting down one time frame from the bar reveals the length of the short-term trend being reversed by the long finger. Very often, dojis and hammers represent first rise/first failure setups within the smaller time frame. This further predicts where the reversal momentum will fade for a test of the candle.
Following a doji or hammer reversal, a test of the candle high or low often takes place within 3 to 5 bars. When the test fails, expect price to thrust sharply forward, especially when overbought/oversold indicators show no divergence. When the test succeeds, shift down one time frame again and trade the setup according to double bottom/double top strategy. Specifically look for price to surge on the breakout past the high/low of the initial reversal generated by the candle.
Hundreds of stocks printed long-legged dojis and hammers during the dramatic October 1998 reversal day. DELL never returned to test its low following a death-defying leap into the abyss. Pay close attention to gap support or resistance created by the bar following the candle event.
>
Price returns to test ALTR's new high doji and reverses. Reviewing this chart on a 5-min intraday interval reveals a classic double top scenario. Aggressive traders often enter short sales at doji tops, recognizing their hidden power.
*********************************************************
This guest article was written by Alan Farley, trader and author of "The Master Swing Trader."
A simple yet powerful tool, the Risk Control Calculator helps you manage risk by recommending a maximum number of shares to purchase. Available in the RightLine Member's Area.
Disclaimer
The RightLine Report is an information service for investors and traders. It is not a solicitation nor a recommendation or offer to buy or sell securities. The information provided is obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The publishers of The RightLine Report are not brokers or financial advisors, and are not acting in any way to influence the purchase or sale of any security. Stock picks, entry points and exit points should be considered an information resource to assist the trader in developing a trading plan and it is the sole responsibility of the reader to conduct his or her own due diligence before executing a trade. Trading securities should be considered speculative with a high degree of volatility and risk.
The publishers of The RightLine Report recommend that anyone trading securities should do so with caution, exercise prudent trading discipline and have a personal risk management strategy in place before doing so. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the publishers and staff of The Pro Right Line Corp. may own, buy or sell securities presented. The Pro Right Line Corp. is not a financial advisory service. Its publishers, owners or investors, are not liable for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise, that result from the content of The RightLine Report. Past RightLine Report performance may not be indicative of future performance.
All subscriptions and/or use of the RightLine.net website are subject to RightLine's "Terms of Use" and "Subscriber Terms & Conditions" which are posted at www.rightline.net.
Any REDISTRIBUTION of the above information, without The RightLine's written consent, is STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
Copyright / The Pro Right Line Corporation - All Rights Reserved
Click Here To Unsubscribe