Notes From The Editor

So, what sort of dollar value would you give to your mistakes? Most people consider them worthless, or usually even a costly liability. In reality, our mistakes have a tremendous amount of positive value, but only if we have learned the lessons they contain.

We all have blind spots in our trading field of vision - things that we just don't see because of our psychological makeup. As a result, typical trader behavior is usually a paradox.

For example, newbies always have inadequate training in the markets, yet generally expect to be successful without anyone to guide them. On the other hand, accomplished traders know that training and rules are important, but many will set rules then turn around and break them.

The reasons for these types of self destructive trading behaviors are embedded deep in our brains. Today's actions are largely the result of early childhood conditioning that established habits and beliefs long before we even knew what they were.

Positive behaviors such as those involved in admitting and embracing mistakes are a challenge for the majority of adults. Negative responses can be traced back to our youth, when as children we understood that punishment was often connected to making mistakes, yet we were unaware of how silly we looked when trying to avoid responsibility for our actions.

It always seemed like a good idea at the time, though now we can see that maybe it wasn't. In the same way, our current trading behavior always seems the right thing to do - at least at the time we do it.

"Oh, the market really hurt me!" This statement is a good indicator that the speaker is really responsible for whatever damage happened. Have you ever noticed how most investors are reluctant to admit that they are responsible for their losses, yet they take credit for their gains?

At first glance it seems natural to be ashamed of our mistakes and proud of our accomplishments. However, our blunders usually teach us as much or more than our achievements - if we are willing to learn from them.

The only truly bad mistakes are the ones that we deny. It takes courage to own up to them, much less accept them as valuable learning experiences to be embraced.

The good news is that we can start changing our old habits and beliefs by taking responsibility for our actions. A trading mistake can cost quite a bit in terms of cash, so it's always wise to get at least the same amount of value in usable experience.

When reviewed objectively, our experiences are usually worth much more than we ever imagined.

Trade well,

~ Thomas Sutton, Editor

Quick List

    
Stock     03/16     03/16      Buy      Short   Trailing Stops     Gain 
Symbol    Price      +/-      Entry     Entry   Initial/Tighten   Amount 
------  --------  --------  --------  --------  ---------------  --------

MSB       24.67      0.46     25.01                   1.9/0.95       3.1
MNSO      18.68      0.10     19.07     17.65        1.42/0.71      1.62
LMNR      16.11      0.44     16.48                  1.57/0.79      0.82
AR        22.38      0.36      22.8     20.95        1.85/0.93      2.36

The "Quick List" provides a brief summary of each stock write-up and should be taken in the context of the related write-up presented in the "Stocks Covered in This Issue" section of this Report.

Be sure to read "How To Use The RightLine Quick List" and always use the RightLine Risk Control Calculator before entering any position.

For more on controlling risk go to the RightLine Risk Control System

For a glossary of terms unique to The RightLine Report go to: Glossary

Questions? Send us an email using our Contact Form.

Market Summary

The top US stock indices were significantly higher on Thursday as traders digested a robust round of economic news. Unemployment claims declined more than expected, housing construction was up much more than anticipated, import prices declined, and Philadelphia manufacturing continues to be stuck in in a contraction zone. In equities, Dollar General (DG $212) announced mixed quarterly results, while Adobe (ADBE $353) beat expectations and presented a positive outlook. Gold and the USD/dollar finished the session lower, treasury yields and oil prices were higher.

                        Mar 15, 2023           Mar 16, 2023   
                  --------------------   --------------------
Dow                 31,874.57  -280.83     32,246.55   371.98
Nasdaq              11,434.05     5.90     11,717.28   283.22
S&P 500              3,891.93   -27.36      3,960.28    68.35

NYSE Volume                      6.62B                  5.72B
NYSE Advancers                     677                  2,291
NYSE Decliners                   2,349                    737

Nasdaq Volume                    5.93B                  5.51B
Nasdaq Advancers                 1,335                  2,957
Nasdaq Decliners                 3,103                  1,510

                                 New Highs/Lows

                   03/09  03/10  03/13  03/14  03/15  03/16
                 --------------------------------------------
NYSE New Highs        51     25     14     18     12     16
NYSE New Lows         96    209    345     99    266    177
Nasdaq New Highs      72     37     31     31     28     54
Nasdaq New Lows      312    547    623    214    432    284
   

TRADER'S TIP: "True Confidence"

Most new traders have the potential to become profitable, yet the majority has a tough time surviving the early days. The main reason is that the average trader gets virtually no training in risk and trade management. As a result, they accumulate losses, and give up before they've invested enough time and effort to gain the "true" confidence that comes with experience. "True" confidence is more than just ego- based bravado. It allows traders to be patient, and compels them to choose intelligent action instead of jumping into the market without a protective strategy. The beliefs that make up true confidence cause us wait for a good trade setup instead of grabbing the first one that comes along.

The Technical Analyst

For help with this chart, be sure to read "Understanding The Importance Of Support And Resistance"
and "Improve Your Trading With Moving Averages".

S&P 500 - 3960.28 March 16, 2023

52-Week High: 4637.30
52-Week Low: 3491.58
Daily Trend: UP
Weekly trend: UP
Weekly Pivot Levels
Resistance 3: 2902.30
Resistance 2: 2746.70
Resistance 1: 1373.35
Pivot: 2591.10
Support 1: 1217.75
Support 2: 2435.50
Support 3: 2279.90

NASDAQ Composite - 11717.28 March 16, 2023

52-Week High: 14646.90
52-Week Low: 10088.83
Daily Trend: UP
Weekly trend: UP
Weekly Pivot Levels
Resistance 3: 9074.20
Resistance 2: 8323.20
Resistance 1: 4161.60
Pivot: 7572.20
Support 1: 3410.60
Support 2: 6821.20
Support 3: 6070.19
        
Dow Industrials - 32246.55 March 16, 2023

52-Week High: 35492.22
52-Week Low: 28660.94
Daily Trend: DOWN
Weekly trend: DOWN
Weekly Pivot Levels
Resistance 3: 22999.01
Resistance 2: 22122.24
Resistance 1: 11061.12
Pivot: 21245.47
Support 1: 10184.35
Support 2: 20368.70
Support 3: 19491.93
 

Market Calendar

ECONOMIC REPORTS AND EVENTS (all times are Eastern):    

FRIDAY, MARCH 17					
9:15 am	Industrial production
9:15 am	Capacity utilization	
10:00 am	U.S. leading economic index	
10:00 am	Consumer sentiment
	
For a chart of typical Up or Down market reactions to specific major US economic reports 
go to:  Economic Indicator Effects

TRADER'S TIP: "Charts Reveal Emotions"

A stock price chart is an expression of trader and investor emotions, with fear and greed at opposite poles. Fear is generally a much stronger emotion than greed, and the reason that markets tend to go down faster than they go up.

Stocks Covered in This Issue

BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR

Mesabi Trust (MSB: Basic Materials/Steel) - BULLISH BOUNCE. Up-trending stocks like MSB have a tendency to bounce their way skyward rather than travel higher in a straight line. After touching down to a moving average support level on Thursday, MSB is poised to lift off again. To take advantage of this setup, prepare to BUY shares at 25.01 if positive price action occurs. As always, follow your entry with a trailing stop. A 1.9 trailer should work well with MSB. Tighten it to 0.95 on a 3.1 gainer. Earnings Report Date: Apr 25, 2023. Beta: 0.96. Market-Cap: 323.67M. Optionable.

CONSUMER CYCLICAL SECTOR

MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO: Consumer Cyclical/Specialty Retail) - SQUEEZE PLAY. A look at MNSO's daily chart shows what a price squeeze is all about. The constricted high-low daily trading range has produced a setup similar to a tightly coiled spring. Expect price to move sharply soon, with the direction yet to be determined. Let the upcoming market action resolve whether you will buy shares or sell short. To capture a move either way, place a BUY trigger at 19.07 and a SELL short trigger at 17.65. Once MNSO shows which way it's headed, place your triggered entry order. As soon as your order is filled, follow with a trailing stop of 1.42 and tighten to 0.71 on a 1.62 gain. MNSO closed Thursday at 18.68. Earnings Report Date: May 24, 2023. Beta: 0.33. Market-Cap: 6.208B. Optionable.

CONSUMER DEFENSIVE SECTOR

Limoneira Company (LMNR: Consumer Defensive/Farm Products) - BULLISH BOUNCE. If you are looking for another bouncer with profits in mind, LMNR fits the bill. Shares have been in retreat-mode lately, but now this stock is in the process of bouncing from support. Currently priced at 16.11, plan to buy shares at 16.48 and use a 1.57 trailing stop. Tighten the stop to 0.79 on a 0.82 gain. Earnings Report Date: Jun 05, 2023. Beta: 0.62. Market-Cap: 287.251M. Optionable.

ENERGY SECTOR

Antero Resources Corporation (AR: Energy/Oil & Gas E&P) - SQUEEZE PLAY. Thursday's trading action forced AR's daily price range into an abnormally narrow state. This translates into opportunity; for the cyclical nature of price volatility is to shrink extensively, then swell rapidly as shares move in one direction or another. Instead of trying to predict the direction AR will take when price volatility begins to increase, we'll set both a BUY (long) and a SELL (short) trigger to get us into the right trade. Be ready to BUY shares at 22.8 if AR moves higher, and place your order to SELL short at 20.95 if price declines to that level. As usual follow your entry with a trailing stop, 1.85 should be sufficient. Reduce your stop to 0.93 on a 2.36 gain. AR closed Thursday at 22.38. Earnings Report Date: Apr 25, 2023. Beta: 3.50. Market-Cap: 6.608B. Optionable.

IMPORTANT: Before entering any positions, always use the Risk Control System to determine the level of acceptable risk and the maximum number of shares to buy. Use Gap Adjusted Entries to reset the Entry Price for stocks that gap beyond recommended entry levels.

Stock Splits

Below are the stocks that have announced splits and have recently executed or will execute soon. There is generally a return to normal price behavior in the weeks following a split announcement in what we call a "Dormancy Phase." As the stock nears its split execution date (Effective Date) it often moves into the "Pre-Split Run" stage where quick and sometimes dramatic gains can occur.

                             Announce     Eff.       Split
Company Name     (Symbol)      Date       Date       Ratio   Options  
---------------- -------     --------    -------     ------  -------   

NOTE: The number of stock split announcments goes up during Bull markets, 
and goes down during Bear market cycles. There are currently no upcoming 
stock splits that meet RightLine's proprietary criteria for split ratio, 
trading volume and price action.      

Split details are also available online at the RightLine Online Stock Split Calendar. For a detailed look at the different stages of a Stock Split, Click Here.

A simple yet powerful tool, the Risk Control Calculator helps you manage risk by recommending a maximum number of shares to purchase. Available in the RightLine Member's Area.

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